Below is a story about sanctions, oil, gas, the Arctic & how speeding up climate change could mean big $ for Russia.
In 2011 Rosneft and Exxon announced partnership plan to invest $500 BILLION in Arctic and Black Sea exploration.
Exxon, Rosneft unveil $500 billion offshore venture
Igor Sechin described ambition of Rosneft/Exxon project as “bigger than sending man to outer space or flying to the moon” !!!
“Experts say that this project, in terms of its ambitions, exceeds sending man into outer space or flying to the moon,” Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, a key architect of the partnership, told a briefing for analysts in New York.
After Russia invaded/annexed Crimea territory Ukraine, 2014 US sanctions forced Exxon/Rosneft to stop exploration.
Exxon winds down drilling as U.S. sanctions hit Russia
This Jan 17 article asked if Putin helped elect Trump to restore $500 billion Exxon deal killed by sanctions.
Did Putin help elect Trump to restore $500 billion Exxon oil deal killed by sanctions
US sanctions blocking deal per @maddow may have changed “historical trajectory of Russia”.
Blocking the deal did not just “put Exxon at risk,” as the Wall Street Journal reported in 2014. MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow explained last month the biggest oil deal in history was “expected to change the historical trajectory of Russia.”
So Putin/Rosneft are finding other $ opportunities, like closing $13 Bil deal for 49% stake in India’s Essar Oil.
The $13 Bil Rosneft Essar deal is Russia’s largest outbound deal ever & biggest investment in India ever.
Rosneft is in now in talks w/CEFC China Energy about buying a stake in Rosneft.
Rosneft is poised to acquire ownership of Venezuelan PDVSA assets if they default.
If Trump sanctions Venezuela it may benefit Putin by pushing PDVSA into Rosneft ownership.
As Rosneft hogs headlines, a little covered story may become a big deal as climate change progresses: Russia’s Arctic Yamal LNG project.
The Arctic Yamal LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) is a $27 Billion project, one of the largest in entire industry.
A Massive Natural Gas Plant Rises In The Arctic
The 2014 US sanctions on Russia significantly hurt financing for the Yamal LNG project.
As gigantic as they are, the logistical and technological challenges are not the only ones. There is also politics: The site was launched in late 2013, a few months before the sanctions against Russia began. That’s a hiccup worth $27 billion.
“When the sanctions happened in July 2014, we had advanced well financially with standard contracts with American banks and American lawyers. But we had to start over again from scratch,” recalls Jacques de Boisséson. The Washington sanctions, decided upon in the wake of the Ukrainian crisis, did not affect the project directly because gas was not included — although the French company’s Russian partner, Novatek, was targeted, as one of its main shareholders, Gennady Timchenko, was close to Vladimir Putin.
But Yamal LNG got around sanctions with $12 Bil Chinese loan.
UPDATE 2-Russia’s Yamal LNG gets round sanctions with $12 bln Chinese loan deal
Yamal LNG is now 60% owned by Russian gas company Novatek, 20% by China CNPC and 20% by France’s Total.
European Banks to Join Yamal LNG Financing in Coming Months – Russia’s Novatek
The Yamal LNG Project is considered one of the largest industrial initiatives in the Russian Arctic. It involves construction of facilities to supply 16.5 million metric tonnes of LNG per year from the resource base of South Tambey in Russia’s Arctic Yamal Peninsula. Novatek is said to own a 60-percent equity stake in the project, with China’s CNPC and France’s Total at 20 percent each.
In addition to China & France, other European banks may also finance the Russian Arctic Yamal LNG project.
European Banks to Join Yamal LNG Financing in Coming Months – Russia’s Novatek
Why does Arctic Yamal LNG project matter? There’s big $ for Russia if global warming thaws ice, opens shipping routes & drilling options.
This story describes how “Arctic Ocean thaw helps Russian shipping as old ice blows west”.
Arctic Ocean thaw helps Russian shipping as old ice blows west
This week record speed was set “New records for Arctic shipping but WARMING YET TO BRING BONANZA” (emphasis mine).
New records for Arctic shipping but warming yet to bring bonanza
A Russian LNG (liquified natural gas) tanker set a new record speed on a route along Russia’s northern border.
A specially built LNG tanker has set a new fastest time for travelling the Northern Sea Route (NSR) through the Arctic, but for now, at least, the record doesn’t seem to be heralding the start of a long-predicted shipping bonanza across the top of the world.
The NSR is one of two routes through the Arctic that open up the possibility of considerably shorter shipping journeys between the Atlantic and Asia as climate change reduces the extent of Arctic sea ice.
Russia considers Northern Route important for transportation, nat’l security & plans to enhance military there.
The Arctic was increasingly being viewed by some observers as a potential emerging security issue. Some of the Arctic coastal states, particularly Russia, had announced an intention or taken actions to enhance their military presences in the high north, the report said.
“This is a big event in the opening up of the Arctic,” Mr. Putin said about the new record shipping trip.
Russian Tanker Completes Arctic Passage Without Aid of Icebreakers
The journey was the culmination of a centuries-old navigational dream and of a decade-long plan by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, whose government has indicated it plans to take political and economic advantage of changes to the Arctic’s climate.
“This is a big event in the opening up of the Arctic,” Mr. Putin said of the tanker’s maiden voyage this year.
Rapid climate change has altered the region, and soon the journey along this Russian route can be made year-round.
But rapid changes to the climate have significantly altered the region’s ice, and Sovcomflot said in a statement that it believed the ship could make the journey “year-round in the difficult ice conditions.”
Russia just made another Arctic trip to bring politicians to the North Pole on the 50 Let Pobedy icebreaker.
Russian politicos say the Arctic is too pretty to smoke in – but not too pretty to drill – Bellona…
Per this Aug 24 article Russia plans to increase Arctic oil production.
Russia to increase Arctic oil production to 100-106 mln tonnes in 2017
This June story describes how Yamal LNG aims to topple Qatar to become world’s leading LNG exporter.
Russia’s Novatek aims topple Qatar from LNG top spot
However, Yamal LNG has competition, June 8th the US delivered first shipment of liquified natural gas to Poland.
First U.S. Natural Gas Shipped to Poland
Poland and other Russian neighbors are trying to reduce their energy dependency on Russia.
Poland just took a symbolic step forward in wresting itself from Russia’s energy dominance.
On Thursday, the first ever liquefied natural gas shipment from the United States arrived in Poland, a landmark of sorts in Europe’s continuing drive to diversify the sources of its energy imports. The gas came from an export terminal in Louisiana that was first out of the gate to exploit the U.S. shale boom to supply the global market.
And tensions are rising w/Russia US Canada Norway Denmark Greenland over territorial rights in the Arctic region.
Russian Tanker Completes Arctic Passage Without Aid of Icebreakers
As experts anticipate further melting across the Arctic, several countries have sought ways to exploit the thawing — laying cables and drilling for oil, natural gas and other resources.
That increase in access has brought with it an increase in political tensions. Canada contends the waters of the Arctic Archipelago are its internal waters, a claim the United States and other nations contest.
Greenland, an autonomous region of Denmark, maintains it has the sole rights to an immense ridge it considers part of its continental shelf that extends for hundreds of miles beneath the Arctic Ocean.
As the world’s climate heats up, competition for energy resources and control of the Arctic will heat up as well.
Rosneft, Exxon, Yamal LNG & other natural resource companies have huge $ at stake and may benefit from climate change warming.
And Russia is preparing as they build their Northern fleet to “phase NATO out of the Arctic”.
Russia’s Northern Fleet beefs up its nuclear capabilities to phase ‘NATO out of Arctic’
The 2nd detailed chart I created on Rosneft captures these companies mentioned, Yamal LNG, Exxon, Essar, PDVSA.
Rosneft Deal — 2 Charts — Basic & Detailed
Trump may have delivered a bigger gift to Putin/Russia than many realize by withdrawing the US from the Paris Climate deal.
As Trump/Russia collusion story unfolds, it’s essential to watch who benefits and at what price to us and to future generations to come.
Footnote to piece above, excellent @Sarimner article on Russia’s Arctic militarization.
What Russia gains from militarizing the Arctic